The number one pick. Many people want that top pick in fantasy football, and others fear it. I am one of those guys who would love to have that top spot. The toughest part is waiting for 19 picks until you go again. What I have found is that the top-ranked guy is almost always the top performer from the previous season. I am sure a lot of people have found that 1st overall guy (Jonathan Taylor from 2022 drafts) has a hard time repeating his career year. There is almost always a drop-off. Unfortunately, for Taylor, it was an ankle sprain that derailed his season. He played in 11 games and was limited a bit even when he played. It also didn’t help that the Colts team struggled mightily as a whole.
For example, Cooper Kupp was certainly primed for a dropoff. He could have had a killer year and put up more than 1,700 yards, but certainly not more than 1,900 again. If we are lucky, we get a guy like Antonio Brown who had one of the greatest runs we have ever seen from 2014-2018. I hope that Kupp can have a run like that, but he also suffered an ankle injury in 2022 while the rest of the team struggled. Kupp and Taylor are reminders that football is a team sport.
The odds were stacked against JT, Kupp, and Austin Ekeler. Somehow, Ekeler managed to replicate his season from 2021 and actually improved from second to first in PPR scoring. Going into 2023, here are what I think to be the best candidates to be worthy of the number one pick, and actually return that investment (non-QBs):
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- Christian McCaffrey
- Nick Chubb
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- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
The Top Pick in Fantasy Football: Running Backs
Nick Chubb, RB-CLE
My favorite candidate here is Nick Chubb. In this case, we are talking half PPR scoring, so Chubb is an easy choice. He has been an RB1 every year since the 2019 season. His finishes are:
- 2018 – RB15 (rookie year)
- 2019 – RB6
- 2020 – RB9 (played in 12 games due to injury)
- 2021 – RB7
- 2022 – RB5
Chubb has held up very well at the NFL level since entering the league. He is the engine that drives Cleveland’s offense and is always relied upon heavily. Outside of a minor knee injury he had in 2020 that kept him out of four games, he has played in 14 or more games each year. I feel he was lost in the mess that is the Browns this past season. His fourth consecutive finish as an RB1 can’t be overlooked. Now that Deshaun Watson will have a full offseason and some playing time as a Brown, this offense should look much more dangerous next season.
Chubb is often overlooked because of his lack of use in the receiving game. That might be something worth considering in a full PPR league, but in a half-point or zero-point league, this is the man for the top pick in fantasy football for 2023. Last season was his best season statistically as a pro, and he had little at quarterback for much of the season. Once we start seeing the Texans version of Deshaun Watson play quarterback, watch out for this Cleveland offense.
Christian McCaffrey, RB-SF
The San Francisco 49ers team was loaded before they traded for McCaffrey midseason. They became even more dangerous after he was acquired and did not lose a game with him until the NFC championship game against the Eagles. The season narrative for San Fran was all about the quarterback situation. Once Brock Purdy took over, he was all anyone could talk about, and it overshadowed CMC’s RB2 finish in fantasy this year in half-point scoring. He was only seven points from the RB1 spot held by Josh Jacobs.
McCaffrey is back. He proved to us that he is capable of being a durable player who can still make it through a rigorous NFL season. It also helps that coach Kyle Shanahan has the best run game, offensive line, and play-caller combination in the league. When you add a top-tier talent such as CMC, it’s simply just not fair.
It helps CMC to have depth behind him. The team has Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason who have proven to be explosive runners in their own right. This gives slightly less work to just one guy and helps in keeping them all fresh throughout the long season. This also helps McCaffrey limit his injury risk. He still got the bulk of the work totaling:
- 708 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns
- 440 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns
All in 11 games work. He also consulted NFL legend Marshall Faulk in taking care of his body this past offseason. It seems some of that advice worked and helped bring back the Christian McCaffrey we all know and love to watch play football.
The Top Pick in Fantasy Football: Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson, WR-MIN
Justin Jefferson did exactly what we thought he would do in 2022: improve from the last season and win offensive player of the year. The only thing he did not achieve was 2,000 receiving yards. He is still young and only entering his fourth season and has a better chance than anyone to hit that mark sometime in his career.
Whoever said you can’t take a wide receiver with the top pick in fantasy football? I felt a bit of a shift in some drafts in 2022. I saw more receivers go early and often. The factor behind it would be they have less injury risk than running backs. This position rarely ever requires running into an area with 10 or 14 men that are 270 pounds. Jefferson is the main man in Minnesota and a top-three wide receiver in the NFL depending on who you ask. He can run routes, outjump, and outrun the competition on any team that lines up against him. If any wideout can be justified at the first overall pick, it’s Justin Jefferson or…
Ja’Marr Chase, WR-CIN
Chase is the one guy who can rival Jefferson on a physical level. He runs routes, runs by people, and can win the jump ball with ease. He took a step back after a historic rookie season due to a hip injury. Over a full 17 games, not many choices are better than Chase. Though he missed five games in 2022, he still managed 1,046 receiving yards and continued to be Joe Burrow’s top target. That was good enough for a WR12 finish.
The 2021 rookie of the year is only entering his third season and the ceiling has yet to be reached. As long as he has Joe throwing to him, he is a threat to be the WR1 in fantasy every season. His rookie season was a bit inflated because of a couple of 200-yard games that covered up a couple of duds. Chase changed the Bengals team and helped them to the Super Bowl and to tier second straight Championship game appearance. Just like Jefferson, Chase benefits from being out wide and not close by to the many bodies weighing more than 270 pounds so the injury risk is much less than someone like his own teammate, Joe Mixon.
My hope for Chase is he finds more consistency over a season. He is more of a big play-dependent receiver. He had eight games with less than 10 yards per target, but some of that could be attributed to the offense as a whole. As the Super Bowl loser, the hangover is real. The good news is the team figured it out down the stretch and made it back to the NFC championship again. This team can continue to compete mainly because they have a game-breaker at wide receiver that strikes fear into defenses. Ja’Marr Chase is worthy of the top pick in fantasy football in 2023.