This breakdown will feature two teams from a fantasy keeper league who have a tough choice in selecting their keepers for an upcoming draft. The rule is your keeper cost you a round higher than the previous year. For example, if you select a player in the 10th round one year, the next year he will cost you a ninth.
Keeper Selection for Team 1: Trevor Lawrence and Ken Walker III
The Cost of Each if Kept:
- Trevor Lawrence: 9th round
- Ken Walker III: 11th round
This team took a leap in drafting Trevor Lawrence last season. As the defending champion, a calculated risk was made in a good spot in round nine. Lawrence’s rookie season was lost. He was in the worst possible situation with Urban Meyer as his head coach. With all of that behind him, he opened 2022 on a solid note. He has openly said something changed for him and the team after the Denver game in week 8. After that game, the Jaguars won seven of their last nine.
At a ranking of 29 overall, it is clear people are believing in the Jaguars team with Trevor Lawrence leading them. The team also acquired Calvin Ridley, who has looked fast in training camp so far. I don’t know what to expect from Ridley in fantasy after a year off of football, but I do expect him to help that team be more explosive on offense. They already had a sneaky WR1 in Christian Kirk, a respectable number two in Zay Jones, a breakout TE6 Evan Engram, and 5.1 YPC from Travis Etienne. This team is primed to continue its growth and is now the strong favorite to win their division this year.
Lawrence also has a sneaky great rushing ability that does not get enough attention. He is a phenomenal athlete. His rushing yards ranked number 10 amongst QBs and was tied for 5th in rushing touchdowns with five. He is somebody who can get you with his arm and legs, which makes him an attractive option as a fantasy keeper league selection.
Fantasy Keeper League Selections: The Debate Continues
Ken Walker was another risky pick, given he was recovering from a hernia surgery he had during training camp. It was unclear at the time when he would be healthy enough to play and contribute at a high level. I thought he would miss a few games but as the draft day got closer, it was clear he would be ready to play in week one. The only question was: How much can he contribute? He was a perfect late-round gamble and an ideal potential keeper looking ahead to the following season.
Here we are, a year later and it worked out. Walker started out slow with only 58 yards rushing in the first three games combined, but that is expected with rookies. Walker’s usage was gradually ramped up over the next few weeks and exploded for 167 yards on the ground and two touchdowns against the Chargers in LA. There was no looking back after that. The total numbers for the rookie were 1,050 yards rushing with nine touchdowns and a 4.6 YPC average. The Seahawks offensive line was not in the top half of the league in terms of blocking, so Walker was able to make the best of his situations.
He is currently ranked at 43 overall in Superflex drafts and would be an amazing value at a round 11 selection if kept this year. Seattle did select another runner in round two of the NFL draft, though. I see this as a dual-threat backfield and an effort to preserve each player’s health. Walker saw 79 carries over the last three games last season. With the addition of rookie Zach Charbonnet, I expect Walker’s workload dialed back to 15-20 carries per game.
The choice is tough. I had thought for a while this team will go with Walker up until recently. Trevor Lawrence is a very good fantasy keeper league option, especially for a Superflex. He has the potential to build on a great season last year. Lawrence also possesses a rushing upside that is overlooked. Meanwhile, Ken Walker will have his workload cut down with the addition of another second-round running back. The decision here is looking like Trevor Lawrence in hopes he takes that next step.
Fantasy Keeper League Selection: Tony Pollard vs Dameon Pierce
The cost of each player if kept:
- Dameon Pierce: 7th round
- Tony Pollard: 9th round
Drafting Tony Pollard last year was a bit of a wild card. Nobody knew what the share of the workload would be for him and Zeke. As the season went on, it was clear Pollard was the better back on the roster and deserved more touches because he was the most explosive player the Cowboys had on their roster. This reminds me of the Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler situation a few years ago. Ekeler received enough passing game work to receive flex consideration and ended up taking over as the main man in Los Angeles when Gordon held out and eventually left town.
Now Pollard will have the primary shares of the backfield. The only concern is, he is coming off a broken ankle suffered in the playoffs against the 49ers. Luckily for us in the fantasy community, a broken bone can heal a lot faster than a torn tendon or ligament. For the 2022 season, Pollard finished as an RB7 with just over 1,000 yards on the ground and nine touchdowns. He also added 371 through the air and another three touchdowns. His YPC average was 5.2 compared to Ezekiel Elliott’s 3.8. At a nice spot of 13 overall so far in drafts, Pollard is a big-time steal for this manager as a 9th-round pick.
The Second Keeper Option: Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce is no secret to the fantasy world. The hype train was full steam ahead this time last year. He is an angry runner and lived up to the hype until he got hurt and missed the final few games of the season. He was able to reach 939 yards on the ground without much of a passing game to complement him. Behind Pierce, only Devin Singletary has a chance to take some carries or pass-catching opportunities from him. Depending on how rookie quarterback CJ Stroud develops, Pierce has a great chance to improve on his rookie year and pass the 1,000-yard mark.
Pierce received 20+ carries in five games last year and could easily surpass that with little competition behind him. After only scoring four touchdowns on the ground, I expect that number to increase. His current ADP in half PPR formats is at 58 overall, and the RB22. Based on the Texans’ position, I think that is right. This manager would keep him for a 7th-round pick, making him a good value. Heading into this season, Pierce will get a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud to help him through the air. The Texan’s wide receiver corps is on pace to be lackluster for a second straight season, but there is much more upside this time around.
Rookie Tank Dell has looked good so far, as well as second-year player John Metchie III. This is a young core of players that have the chance to grow together for the next couple of seasons. The team traded away Brandin Cooks, so somebody will have to step up and fill the void left to support Dameon Pierce on the ground.
The Decision is Tough, But Also Easy
Out of the two players listed from this team, the choice is Tony Pollard. He has more upside and is in a better situation compared to Pierce. I would be shocked if this manager keeps anyone but Pollard going into the draft. Pollard is one of the better fantasy football keeper values you will find when comparing draft status last season and the situation now.
Interested in more keeper content? Check out our other post analyzing two other keeper selections here.