Every year there are fantasy football ADP values and busts. These are the players who can make or break your team and determine your chances at a fantasy championship. We all know Travis Kelce and Justin Jefferson are locked in fantasy stars, so you can get away with drafting them whenever you want. We are going to take a look at a few players who outperformed their draft position going into the 2022 NFL season while also examining who underperformed and burned managers for drafting them. Research is based on half-PPR.
Fantasy football may seem easy to your casual fan. Managers just click a few buttons and set a lineup one time per week and let the real players do all the work. Managing a team is easy, but drafting the perfect team and winning despite a hard schedule and unpredictable events in the NFL on a weekly basis, is hard work. Not everyone you draft is a lock to hit their projected points totals and return value on their ADP. A variety of things such as injuries, poor performance, coaching decisions, and even weather can affect your team from draft day to the final game of week 17, the fantasy championships.
Fantasy Football ADP Overachievers
DeVonta Smith, WR-PHI
Draft spot: 91 overall; WR36
Finished WR10
DeVonta Smith had an under-the-radar improvement this past season. He was overshadowed by teammate A.J. Brown, who changed the team. Smith finished with 1,196 receiving yards, which was almost 300 more than his rookie season. He also racked up 30 more catches this year as well with 95. He thrived with the improvement of QB Jalen Hurts. Other notable receivers who went around this 91 overall spot in drafts include Elijah Moore, Allen Lazard, and Hunter Renfrow. It is crazy how players ranked next to each other can perform in a given season.
Jared Goff, QB-DET
Draft spot 195 overall; QB24
Finished QB10
I don’t think anyone thought the Lions would be close to the playoff conversation in 2022. After starting 1-6, they battled back under coach Dan Campbell and were a Seahawks loss away from the playoffs. Jared Goff was a huge part of that success and made a case to be the Lions starting quarterback long-term. Goff struggled against some of the better defenses in the league and in some cold-weather games. On the flip side, he shredded the lesser defenses helping him finish as a QB1.
Tyler Allgeier, RB-ATL
Draft spot 131 overall; RB46
Finished RB27
Tyler Allgeier had an almost quiet rookie season, up until a week 15 game against the New Orleans Saints where he destroyed them for 139 yards and a touchdown. His workload, like many rookies, increased as the season went on. He was also part of a committee backfield in Atlanta. We learned this year that the Falcons want to run the ball almost 100% of the time, which helps even a committee running back succeed. Allgeier finished with 1,035 rushing yards as a rookie. With teammate Cordarrelle Patterson turning 32 this year and possibly getting released, the arrow is pointing up for Allgeier. His fantasy football ADP will be much higher next season.
Geno Smith
Draft spot 241 overall; QB34
Finished QB5
Geno is the biggest ADP overperformer on this list. Nobody thought Smith would play like this after the team traded Russell Wilson to Denver. He was written off… but he hasn’t written back yet. If he resigns, he can lead this team back to the playoffs again and potentially go further. The team needs to build more on the offensive line to keep him upright. Smith managed to toss 30 touchdowns and take over games with his arm after being a backup since 2015. He also had a little help from rookie running back Ken Walker, who established himself as the man in the backfield. This Seattle team is primed to continue fantasy relevance in 2023.
ADP Underachievers
Michael Pittman Jr., WR-IND
Draft spot 33 overall; WR12
Finished WR27
The Colts team as a whole was a disappointment. I don’t think anyone saw Matt Ryan being as bad as he was last year. He looked… old. Tom Brady may have fooled us into thinking that any quarterback can play good football into their mid 40’s. Michael Pittman Jr didn’t fall off too much from the previous season, but it just felt like his weekly outputs were way worse than a WR27 finish. After looking at the data, Pittman may not have as bad of a season as I thought in totality, but in the weekly breakdowns, you can see the lackluster stats with a measly 7.3 PPG.
Elijah Moore, WR-NYJ
Draft spot: 92 overall; WR37
Finished WR88
This is perhaps the biggest disappointment of the bunch. Elijah Moore was drafted one spot after DeVonta Smith on average, per FantasyPros. One pick in the 9th round changes the course of your team for the entire season. The QB situation was rocky, and nobody except Breece Hall benefited when he was healthy. Both Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore voiced their concerns (too much in my opinion). Wilson managed 1,000 receiving yards despite the bad QB play, and Moore just seemed like an afterthought. Safe to say I won’t be looking his way in 2023 drafts.
Kareem Hunt, RB-CLE
Draft spot: 85 overall; RB35
Finished RB41
An argument can be made for Hunt that as a backup, he should not be looked at to put up RB2 numbers. Since he is a starting-caliber player, he is looked at as a guy who can take over if an injury happens to Nick Chubb. Hunt started the season strong with double-digit touches in each of the Browns’ first five games. After that, he reached 10 or more touches three times during the rest of the season. He did request a trade mid-season, so it is possible he refused more work to save himself for the upcoming free-agent market. Hunt, along with AJ Dillon are high-end backups who are good to hold a roster spot, but we have to remember that they are backups and their fantasy football ADP should be much lower this upcoming season.
