Draft Day ADP Value: Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook- TGIS Football

Josh Jacobs fantasy outlook has drastically changed in the last 12 months. What a difference a year can make for a player. Jacobs put the team on his back in multiple weeks by logging 20+ carries nine times throughout the season, including six straight in weeks 10-15. The Raiders looked awful as a team at times, but Jacobs and Davante Adams were two bright spots on the team for most of the year. Now that he is a franchised player, he is set to play in the 2023 season on that tag. I hope he secures a long-term contract with the Raiders moving forward because he was fun to watch in the new-look Raiders offense.

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Stats

340 carries for 1,653 rushing yards (4.9 AVG) and 12 TD

53 catches for 400 yards

Drafted RB22

Finished RB3

Safe to say that Josh Jacobs was a star in 2022. He finished as the RB3 after a rocky start in the preseason Hall of Fame game. Why was he playing in that meaningless game? It all worked out for him, and for those who took a gamble on Jacobs in their drafts. He was the engine that made the Raiders go most weeks with a heavy workload and little competition behind him. His career game against Seattle with a game-sealing 86-yard score in overtime was a thriller, and he will continue to be a home run threat for the next couple of seasons.

The History of Rushing Leaders

With 340 carries logged and a full 17 games played, expect Jacobs to fall back to his previous seasons and possibly miss a few games. Is there a chance he skips this season and doesn’t play on the franchise tag like Le’Veon Bell? It doesn’t look that way so far, and there is a long time until the deadline in July for a contract, so far there are no signs of doing that. After leading the league in rushing yards, the outlook is bearish for the upcoming season. Here are the last five rushing leaders and their follow-up seasons:

Jonathan Taylor, RB-IND (2021) – 1,811 yards.

- 2022 season: 861 yards (injured and only played in 10 games)

Derrick Henry, RB-TEN (2020) – 2,027 yards.

- 2021 season: 695 yards (injured in Week 8, played in 11 games)

Ezekiel Elliott, RB-DAL (2018) – 1,434 yards.

- 2019 season: 1,357 yards

Todd Gurley, RB-LAR (2017) – 1,305 yards.

- 2018 season: 1,251 yards (missed final two games of the season due to injury)

Ezekiel Elliott, RB-DAL (2016) – 1,631 yards.

- 2017 season: 983 yards (played in 10 games due to suspension)

There are multiple players to be featured here. I will be covering a variety of players over the next few months. Check out the other players who have already been featured by us as values or busts from draft day in 2022:

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook for 2023

Running backs tend to break down a bit after a lot of touches. However, there are some exceptions to the rule. For instance, as we saw with Zeke Elliott, a possible suspension resulted in a down season because of an unnecessary suspension handed down by the league. In 2023, I expect Jacobs to miss a few games as he has in the past, and that is fine. Based on the previous trends, it is extremely possible he finishes as a top-five back and despite this, I believe he will be. Unfortunately, with the contract situation being unresolved, the team is likely to draft a running back somewhere in the middle of the draft to bolster the depth behind him. He is a first-round lock for the upcoming season and is set to resume his workhorse role.