Austin Ekeler finished as the PPR RB2 in 2021 and managed to find his way up to the number one spot in the 2022 season. Typically, anyone who scores double-digit touchdowns in one season sees a regression the following year. For example, see the top three 2019 performers at the running back position and their year following the exceptional seasons.
2019 Top Three RBS:
Christian McCaffrey: RB1 (19 TOT)
Aaron Jones: RB2 (19 TOT)
Ezekiel Elliott: RB3 (14 TOT)
The Next Season in 2020:
McCaffrey: Hurt most of the year
Jones: 11 TOT
Elliott: 6 TOT
One more example: Alvin Kamara in 2020. He scored 21 touchdowns including 6 (SIX!) in one game. He predictably came back down to earth in 2021 and only scored 8 touchdowns in the following year. Austin Ekeler managed to defy those long odds to go from RB2 to RB1 in full PPR scoring formats.
Austin Ekeler Fantasy Finishes Since 2019:
- 2019: RB4 (3 rush, 8 rec TD)
- 2020: RB26 (played only 10 games. 3 TD total)
- 2021: RB2 (12 rush, 8 rec TD)
- 2022: RB1 (13 rush, 5 rec TD)
This two-season production streak is comparable to Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018. Though Gurley finished number 1 in his time, Ekeler is a close comparison finishing second and first in back-to-back seasons. His ADP was around 1.08 going into the 2021 campaign, and 1.03 for the most recent season and his first RB1 overall finish. I had the chance to take him at number 3 this year in a home league draft, but also had him last year with his 20-touchdown output and knew that some regression was coming my way. I opted to take a different player and Ekeler went right after at number four. The rest is history.
Moving into the next season in 2023, it is more likely now that Austin Ekeler will finally see his touchdowns take a step back. The Chargers have a QB in Justin Herbert who can and will throw the ball down the field but did not do that the last couple of seasons. Their now-fired OC, Joe Lombardi, had Herbert throwing the ball the shortest distance beyond the line of scrimmage in the league. The average air yards per target were 6.5, which highly benefits a player like Ekeler. Now that Lombardi is gone, the Chargers are going in a new direction with Kellen Moore. He helped Dak Prescott achieve a much healthier 8.5 air yards per attempt good for 10th overall in the league.
Austin Ekeler has proved to be a durable back who can put up consistent numbers for your fantasy roster. He is still worth a first-round pick because of his dynamic receiving ability, but may not be worth the first-overall pick. Running backs break down over time because of “between the tackles” attempts. Ekeler has always been seen as a receiver first, and that has helped him out drastically with career longevity.