Best Keepers for 2023 Fantasy Football: Two Teams Analyzed
Welcome to the best keepers for 2023 fantasy football featuring Superflex formats. We are taking a dive into last seasons draft results for a league and examining a few team’s possible keeper selections heading into the 2023 NFL season. It is now August, so football season is here though February. LFG!!
Team 1: Chris Olave vs Josh Jacobs
The Cost for Each Player If Kept:
- Chris Olave: 12th-round
- Josh Jacobs: 5th-round
This team won the league championship last season. The key to succeeding in a keeper league as competitive as this one is having an anchor as a keeper, as well as continuously investing in rookies or second-year players toward rounds 10-15. This team had Michael Pittman for a 14th-round pick last year, which would have been one of my favorites had I done one of these posts this time in 2022. Pittman could be considered one of the best keepers for 2023 fantasy football because of his draft slot for this team. After Pittman’s performance last season, he will not likely be a keeper again. Luckily for this manager, many of his picks were winners.
The tough choice here is picking between top running back Josh Jacobs for a 5th-round pick, or wide receiver Chris Olave for a 12th-round pick. Olave is right around 32 overall, and Jacobs is around 25 overall, per FantasyPros.
Starting with Chris Olave, I feel the ceiling is higher. This Saints team overall has a great shot to reach the playoffs and is being overlooked in an already weak NFC. Olave started his career on a good note by posting 1,042 yards and four scores on 72 receptions. He had at least catches in eight games while being the main deep threat for the Saints averaging 14.5 yards per reception. At an ADP of around 23 overall in half PPR settings, Chris Olave is looking like the best value and higher upside choice of the two players. At worst, he is a WR2 alongside Michael Thomas and the main deep threat. If Thomas gets injured again, Olave is capable of being the number one guy for the Saints. For a 2023 12th-round draft pick, Olave is a steal as a keeper for this team.
Josh Jacobs is Back in Familiar Territory
We all remember around this time last year, for the Hall of Fame game, Josh Jacobs started and played a lot. That was a scary sight for dynasty owners and anyone who had drafted their teams in redraft format. His stock took a huge hit and likely was off many fantasy manager boards. Think about it. A former Patriots coordinator that never had a dominant workhorse running back and always used committees. The new coaching staff did not draft this player, adding too many unknowns going into the season. Jacobs fell to round six here and it turned out to be one of this manager’s anchor players for the whole season.
The big issue with Jacobs is that he is not under contract. Even if he had the contract he desired, the likelihood of a falloff is strong. I wrote about Jacobs in a prior post and went into great detail about the history of rushing leaders and their respective follow-up seasons. One year removed from uncertainty with Josh Jacobs, we are back in a similar situation heading into the new NFL season. For a 5th-round selection, this manager would be getting great value for a player who is likely going off the board in the first 2-3 rounds.
Based on the logic mentioned earlier, my pick would be Chris Olave for a 12th-round selection and have him be the late-round anchor for the team. I still like the value Jacobs provides for a 5th, but Olave has more in my eyes. He might be the best of the best keepers for 2023 fantasy football.
This was posted before Josh Jacobs signed his new one-year contract with the Raiders.
Team 2: Jared Goff vs DeVonta Smith
The Cost of Each Player if Kept:
- Jared Goff: 11th-round
- DeVonta Smith: 10th-round
This team caught a lot of criticism for choosing Jared Goff as a QB2 in this Superflex league. Going into the season, the Lions were likely going to trail in most games and will need to throw the ball a lot to stay in games. Their run game was dominant as they stayed in most games with a balanced attack, on offense. There were a few duds, such as the Patriots game, but you could argue coaching let the team down and put them in tough situations. Currently, Goff is at 61 overall in Superflex ranks.
For an 11th-rounder, having a solidified QB2 already locked into your roster is a great option to consider. The Lions are on the rise, and now the league knows it. They are set to open the season against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
Goff had out-dueled Patrick Mahomes once before when he was with the Rams and creative play-caller Sean McVay. Now, he has Ben Johnson calling plays and have shown they can light up a scoreboard any given Sunday. Goff threw at least two touchdown passes in nine games last year, including three each week for the fantasy semi-finals and championship week.
Best Keepers for 2023 Fantasy Football: The Debate Continues
DeVonta Smith was selected a round before Goff by this manager. If kept, Smith would be a 10th-round selection. The Eagles were unstoppable last year and were almost always the best team on the field. The development of the second-year receiver was a massive part of the team’s success. The addition of all-pro receiver A.J. Brown helped too. Smith gave fantasy managers a headache from the start last year by giving them a goose egg in the points column. This was during their week one shootout with the Detroit Lions. The team scored 38 points, and somehow Smith didn’t record a catch.
After that game, we saw the real Smith emerge. In week three, he exploded for 169 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Commanders. After that, there were seven games where he was under 80 yards receiving. He put up 100-yard receiving efforts in four of his last five games (excluding week 18 since it has little relevance for fantasy). This led Smith to finish as a WR9 in half-PPR formats, where he has the potential to improve. He was a true value being selected so late in 2022.
This pick is tough, so I want to lean toward Goff due to the increased value put on QBs in Superflex. Smith is a great player, but there are so many great players on that Eagles team. I think the pick here has to be DeVonta Smith due to his breakout performance last season. His numbers were right there with A.J. Brown and he can be drafted two rounds behind him. Both of these players were featured as great values from the 2022 draft in our values and busts analysis. This manager picked both players late in the draft and proved his doubters wrong, especially with Jared Goff. This proves just how important late-round drafting can be to finding success in fantasy football.
Interested in more fantasy keeper content? Check out our other post on two more team keeper selections going into the 2023 draft season.